Jalen Tolbert

MIA

WR136 · overall #313 · tier – · age 27

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Projected points

4.4/gm

Value over replacement

-41

repl 119

Range

0–126

sd 65

Week

1.7

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 42
Carries: 2
Receptions: 26
Rec yards: 319
Rush yards: 9
Rush TD: 0.0
Rec TD: 1.9
Total TD: 1.9
Games projected: 13.7
Observed pts/gm (history): 5.6
Games of history: 46
Age multiplier: 0.939
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 35.6
Projected plays / game: 60.1
Projected pass rate: 57%
OL run block: -1.09
OL pass protection: -0.47
OL continuity: 69%
2TE rate: 25%
3WR rate: 46%
1st-down pass rate: 42%
Run friendly: -0.06
Scheme creativity: +1.42
Play action / motion: 26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score: 98
Effective contributors: 3.82
Top player's share: 41%
New play-caller: yes
Variance multiplier: 2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: avoid
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: MIN,CIN
Window matchup: -1.52
Opponents after: NYJ,NE,DET
After matchup: +0.40
Flip edge: -1.91
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.70

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

37.3

Per game

3.11

17-gm pace

Best / worst

11.7 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	0.5	WR113	2	1	0	0
2	2.6	WR94	4	2	16	0
3	5.9	WR50	6	3	24	0
4	8.1	WR36	6	4	61	0
5	0.0	WR101	1	0	0	0
6	1.3	WR90	1	1	8	0
7	2.1	WR83	2	1	16	0
8	11.7	WR18	2	2	47	1
11	0.0	WR107	1	0	0	0
13	0.0	WR108	0	0	0	0
17	5.1	WR51	8	4	31	0
18	0.0	WR109	1	0	0	0