TE
Jake Ferguson
DALTE14 · overall #122 · tier 3 · age 27
Projected points
111
7.5/gm
Value over replacement
8
repl 112
Range
83–140
sd 29
Week
8.2
@ HOU
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 85
- Carries
- 0
- Receptions
- 62
- Rec yards
- 554
- Rush yards
- 0
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 4.2
- Total TD
- 4.2
- Games projected
- 14.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 9.6
- Games of history
- 59
- Age multiplier
- 1.010
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 31.0
- Projected plays / game
- 64.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.24
- OL pass protection
- +0.09
- OL continuity
- 86%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.93
- Scheme creativity
- -0.33
- Play action / motion
- 22% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 7
- Effective contributors
- 1.72
- Top player's share
- 74%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.24
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- HOU,TB,GB
- Window matchup
- +0.18
- Opponents after
- PHI,ARI,IND
- After matchup
- +0.33
- Flip edge
- -0.14
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 14
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.27
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
106.1
Per game
6.24
17-gm pace
106
Best / worst
16.9 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.3 | TE29 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | TE7 | 12 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | TE7 | 14 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| 4 | 10.0 | TE7 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| 5 | 16.9 | TE2 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 2 |
| 6 | 9.3 | TE9 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| 7 | 14.9 | TE4 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| 8 | 0.0 | TE48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 3.0 | TE29 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| 11 | 7.6 | TE5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| 12 | 6.1 | TE11 | 6 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| 13 | 3.6 | TE23 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| 14 | 5.8 | TE15 | 7 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| 15 | 1.6 | TE41 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.9 | TE38 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.6 | TE16 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | 0.5 | TE52 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |