RB
Jahmyr Gibbs
DETRB1 · overall #1 · tier 1 · age 24
Projected points
304
20.4/gm
Value over replacement
196
repl 116
Range
245–362
sd 59
Week
27.9
@ CAR
The take
written by hand
No fight with the room here. 15.9 carries and 5.2 targets a game is the best combined workload in football, and 14.9 games is the only thing I'm docking him for.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 86
- Carries
- 258
- Receptions
- 68
- Rec yards
- 529
- Rush yards
- 1264
- Rush TD
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 2.6
- Total TD
- 12.5
- Games projected
- 14.9
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 20.8
- Games of history
- 49
- Age multiplier
- 1.022
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.5
- Projected plays / game
- 62.4
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.69
- OL pass protection
- +0.61
- OL continuity
- 43%
- 2TE rate
- 33%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.24
- Scheme creativity
- -0.09
- Play action / motion
- 28% / 60%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 40
- Effective contributors
- 1.97
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.44
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CAR,ARI
- Window matchup
- +0.96
- Opponents after
- GB,MIN,MIA
- After matchup
- +0.19
- Flip edge
- +0.76
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.05
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
289.9
Per game
17.05
17-gm pace
290
Best / worst
44.4 / 2.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.0 | RB36 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| 2 | 16.4 | RB8 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| 3 | 21.9 | RB4 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| 4 | 15.7 | RB16 | 15 | 91 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | 14.7 | RB11 | 12 | 54 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| 6 | 6.5 | RB23 | 17 | 65 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 33.8 | RB1 | 17 | 136 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 0 |
| 9 | 2.8 | RB43 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | 35.2 | RB2 | 15 | 142 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| 11 | 14.6 | RB13 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 107 | 0 |
| 12 | 44.4 | RB1 | 15 | 219 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| 13 | 8.6 | RB31 | 20 | 68 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 | 30.0 | RB1 | 12 | 43 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| 15 | 5.8 | RB36 | 13 | 38 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| 16 | 12.8 | RB19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| 17 | 4.4 | RB36 | 17 | 41 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| 18 | 17.3 | RB5 | 19 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 1 |