Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jahmyr Gibbs

DET

RB1 · overall #1 · tier 1 · age 24

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Projected points

278

18.6/gm

Value over replacement

176

repl 110

Range

219–336

sd 59

Week

19.0

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
77
Carries
237
Receptions
61
Rec yards
474
Rush yards
1168
Rush TD
9.9
Rec TD
2.6
Total TD
12.5
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
20.8
Games of history
49
Age multiplier
1.022
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
40
Effective contributors
1.97
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.44

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+1.05
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.78
Flip edge
+0.27
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.01

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

289.9

Per game

17.05

17-gm pace

290

Best / worst

44.4 / 2.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
15.091901010310
216.41294133100
321.92267265320
415.7159112260
514.71254022331
66.5176502100
733.817136233820
92.892503330
1035.215142243301
1114.612390851070
1244.41521921211451
138.62068043180
1430.01243377770
155.81338074200
1612.87201310661
174.41741032230
1817.31980053331