WR
Ja'Marr Chase
CINWR1 · overall #5 · tier 1 · age 26
Projected points
238
15.5/gm
Value over replacement
128
repl 115
Range
168–307
sd 70
Week
16.1
vs TB
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 10.8
- Carries / game
- 0.2
- Receptions / game
- 7.1
- Rec yards / game
- 82
- Rush yards / game
- 1
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.65
- Total TD / game
- 0.65
- Games projected
- 15.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 20.4
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 1.009
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 60%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -1.37
- OL continuity
- 99%
- 2TE rate
- 40%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.75
- Scheme creativity
- -0.69
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 52
- Effective contributors
- 2.82
- Top player's share
- 50%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.62
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- TB,HOU,PIT
- Window matchup
- +0.12
- Opponents after
- JAX,MIA
- After matchup
- +0.46
- Flip edge
- -0.34
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.27
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
16
Points
313.6
Per game
19.60
17-gm pace
333
Best / worst
38.1 / 4.6
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.6 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 36.5 | 16 | 14 | 165 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 29.0 | 10 | 6 | 110 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 25.1 | 12 | 10 | 94 | 1 | 1 | -3 |
| 7 | 38.1 | 23 | 16 | 161 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 21.1 | 19 | 12 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 17.1 | 8 | 6 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 6.0 | 10 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 18.0 | 14 | 7 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 10.2 | 8 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 15 | 23.2 | 16 | 10 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 19.9 | 11 | 9 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 25.0 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 23.6 | 10 | 8 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 0 |