Ja'Marr Chase

I nudged him up to 237.5 and WR2. Identical target rate to Nacua at 10.7 a game and a game and a half more of them, and that is the entire gap between the two.

Raised to 237.5 on 11 Aug, landing WR2 at the time. Expanded 3 Sep. 16.49/g over 14.4 games against his own 16.34 half-PPR/g -- barely under it, so this remains a long way under his record. Sleeper projects 256.6, above it. Every market has him first or second -- ADP 2, ECR 1, consensus 2, Underdog 1 -- and he is WR1 on this board now. NO TARGET COLUMN, deliberately. The claim was the NUMBER, not a rank: 'landing him WR2' described where it fell rather than promising a position, and the board has since moved him to WR1 without the argument changing. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers. AND IT REVERSED THIS ROW'S CLAIM: on the correct basis the projection is at or ABOVE his own rate, not below it. The row's argument is unaffected -- it rested on the market anchors and the stated rank -- but the supporting sentence said the opposite of the truth.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.