RB
J.K. Dobbins
DENRB35 · overall #58 · tier 7 · age 27
Projected points
118
11.7/gm
Value over replacement
49
repl 110
Range
89–147
sd 29
Week
6.3
@ KC
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 24
- Carries
- 146
- Receptions
- 19
- Rec yards
- 116
- Rush yards
- 688
- Rush TD
- 4.4
- Rec TD
- 0.2
- Total TD
- 4.5
- Games projected
- 10.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.7
- Games of history
- 32
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.2
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +1.24
- OL pass protection
- +1.55
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 23%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.38
- Scheme creativity
- +0.14
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 48
- Effective contributors
- 2.56
- Top player's share
- 44%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.53
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- KC,JAX,LA
- Window matchup
- -0.81
- Opponents after
- SF,LAC,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.37
- Flip edge
- -0.44
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.60
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
10
Points
104.9
Per game
10.49
17-gm pace
178
Best / worst
14.5 / 4.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.8 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.5 | 14 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 3 | 14.3 | 11 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 10.5 | 16 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 5 | 14.4 | 20 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 4.0 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 8.0 | 14 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | 12.1 | 15 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 9 | 5.9 | 15 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | 8.4 | 18 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |