J.K. Dobbins

DEN

RB26 · overall #50 · tier 6 · age 27

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Projected points

129

12.5/gm

Value over replacement

repl 116

Range

101–157

sd 28

Week

6.4

@ SF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 24
Carries: 162
Receptions: 19
Rec yards: 119
Rush yards: 760
Rush TD: 4.4
Rec TD: 0.2
Total TD: 4.6
Games projected: 10.3
Observed pts/gm (history): 12.7
Games of history: 32
Age multiplier: 0.934
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.2
Projected plays / game: 62.2
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: +1.17
OL pass protection: +1.48
OL continuity: 98%
2TE rate: 23%
3WR rate: 72%
1st-down pass rate: 49%
Run friendly: -0.37
Scheme creativity: +0.15
Play action / motion: 25% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: settled
Ambiguity score: 48
Effective contributors: 2.56
Top player's share: 44%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.53

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: hold
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: SF,LAC,SEA
Window matchup: -0.35
Opponents after: ARI,KC,CAR
After matchup: +0.38
Flip edge: -0.73
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 10
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.65

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

115.9

Per game

11.59

17-gm pace

197

Best / worst

15.5 / 4.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Att	Ru Yds	Ru TD	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	14.8	RB14	16	63	1	2	2	5
2	15.5	RB16	14	76	1	2	1	9
3	15.3	RB14	11	83	1	2	1	0
4	11.5	RB28	16	101	0	1	1	4
5	15.4	RB16	20	79	1	1	1	5
6	4.0	RB49	14	40	0	1	0	0
7	9.0	RB24	14	81	0	1	1	-1
8	14.1	RB17	15	111	0	2	2	10
9	6.9	RB33	15	61	0	1	1	-2
10	9.4	RB30	18	77	0	1	1	7