Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Isiah Pacheco

DET

RB40 · overall #120 · tier 8 · age 27

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Projected points

95

7.7/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 110

Range

50–140

sd 45

Week

6.5

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
27
Carries
116
Receptions
21
Rec yards
141
Rush yards
504
Rush TD
2.3
Rec TD
0.6
Total TD
2.9
Games projected
12.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
8.3
Games of history
51
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
40
Effective contributors
1.97
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.44

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+1.05
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.78
Flip edge
+0.27
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.01

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

13

Points

87.3

Per game

6.72

17-gm pace

114

Best / worst

13.5 / 2.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
14.852503230
23.9102202170
35.8104501130
412.8735032131
58.6736033200
66.1125103100
712.41557121-30
85.8125800000
135.3316022170
143.093000000
152.1112100000
1613.5834076410
173.293200000