Greg Dortch

BUF

WR145 · overall #342 · tier – · age 28

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Projected points

4.2/gm

Value over replacement

-46

repl 119

Range

2–118

sd 58

Week

1.9

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 40
Carries: 4
Receptions: 28
Rec yards: 295
Rush yards: 21
Rush TD: 0.3
Rec TD: 2.2
Total TD: 2.4
Games projected: 14.2
Observed pts/gm (history): 5.7
Games of history: 61
Age multiplier: 0.908
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.7
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 55%
OL run block: +1.32
OL pass protection: +1.30
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 28%
3WR rate: 65%
1st-down pass rate: 40%
Run friendly: +0.97
Scheme creativity: +0.23
Play action / motion: 21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.79
Top player's share: 35%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: NE,LA,LV
Window matchup: +0.72
Opponents after: BAL,MIN
After matchup: -0.41
Flip edge: +1.13
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 7
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.44

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

75.1

Per game

6.26

17-gm pace

106

Best / worst

18.6 / 0.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD	Att	Ru Yds
1	0.8	WR114	1	1	-2	0	0	0
2	2.1	WR105	1	1	11	0	0	0
3	2.8	WR90	2	2	3	0	1	5
4	7.9	WR46	5	4	35	0	1	4
5	3.2	WR82	2	2	12	0	0	0
6	9.9	WR32	3	3	9	1	0	0
7	2.5	WR86	2	2	5	0	0	0
9	0.9	WR96	0	0	0	0	1	9
10	6.2	WR51	0	0	0	0	2	2
11	18.6	WR12	6	6	66	1	0	0
12	16.8	WR14	9	6	53	1	2	-5
13	3.4	WR80	2	2	14	0	0	0