Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

George Pickens

DAL

WR10 · overall #32 · tier 3 · age 25

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Projected points

184

12.3/gm

Value over replacement

77

repl 115

Range

124–243

sd 59

Week

12.0

@ NYG

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
121
Carries
1
Receptions
75
Rec yards
1091
Rush yards
4
Rush TD
0.2
Rec TD
6.4
Total TD
6.6
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.7
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.0
Projected plays / game
64.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.16
OL pass protection
+0.01
OL continuity
92%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.93
Scheme creativity
-0.34
Play action / motion
22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.92
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYG,WAS,BAL
Window matchup
+0.75
Opponents after
HOU,TB,GB
After matchup
-0.19
Flip edge
+0.93
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.36

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

291.9

Per game

17.17

17-gm pace

292

Best / worst

33.4 / 1.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
16.04330000
217.89568100
317.89568100
433.4118134200
513.74257100
631.8119168100
712.26482000
814.89778000
913.99679000
1129.4119144100
1229.699146100
1316.813688000
148.79537000
156.36333000
1626.097130100
1711.85478000
181.9319000