Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Evan Engram

DEN

TE26 · overall #153 · tier 6 · age 31

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Projected points

92

6.6/gm

Value over replacement

-5

repl 111

Range

56–127

sd 36

Week

5.1

@ KC

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
75
Carries
0
Receptions
54
Rec yards
523
Rush yards
3
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
2.2
Total TD
2.2
Games projected
13.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.888
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.2
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+1.24
OL pass protection
+1.55
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
23%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.38
Scheme creativity
+0.14
Play action / motion
25% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
32
Effective contributors
2.02
Top player's share
67%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
KC,JAX,LA
Window matchup
-0.57
Opponents after
SF,LAC,SEA
After matchup
-0.23
Flip edge
-0.34
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.18

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

102.8

Per game

6.42

17-gm pace

109

Best / worst

13.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
15.143210
22.221120
46.974290
513.364331
69.965420
79.285420
87.644360
90.03000
103.252120
117.354330
1313.996790
142.82280
152.231120
165.642360
176.144210
187.543450