Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Emeka Egbuka

TB

WR12 · overall #32 · tier 3 · age 23

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Projected points

182

12.1/gm

Value over replacement

70

repl 119

Range

119–245

sd 63

Week

8.7

vs GB

The take

written by hand

8.3 targets a game at 23 with draft capital behind him. The questionable tag is the only reason I'm not higher.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
133
Carries
2
Receptions
77
Rec yards
1047
Rush yards
8
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
6.2
Total TD
6.2
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.6
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.87
OL pass protection
+1.31
OL continuity
80%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.51
Scheme creativity
-0.17
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.77
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
GB,DAL,PIT
Window matchup
+0.22
Opponents after
CAR,ATL,CHI
After matchup
+0.41
Flip edge
-0.18
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.64

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

132.7

Per game

7.81

17-gm pace

133

Best / worst

24.3 / 0.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
119.6WR36467219
28.9WR337429100
38.5WR308685000
416.1WR7104101110
524.3WR177163100
62.4WR664224000
75.8WR3812458000
83.5WR549335000
1017.5WR4136115100
114.0WR489540000
123.2WR508332000
134.2WR438442000
141.5WR779215000
156.4WR407464000
164.0WR582140000
172.0WR735320000
180.8WR89318000