Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Emeka Egbuka

TB

WR12 · overall #32 · tier 3 · age 23

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Projected points

182

12.1/gm

Value over replacement

70

repl 119

Range

119–245

sd 63

Week

8.7

vs GB

The take

written by hand

8.3 targets a game at 23 with draft capital behind him. The questionable tag is the only reason I'm not higher.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
133
Carries
2
Receptions
77
Rec yards
1047
Rush yards
8
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
6.2
Total TD
6.2
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.6
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.052
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.87
OL pass protection
+1.31
OL continuity
80%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.51
Scheme creativity
-0.17
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.77
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
GB,DAL,PIT
Window matchup
+0.22
Opponents after
CAR,ATL,CHI
After matchup
+0.41
Flip edge
-0.18
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.64

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

17

Points

195.7

Per game

11.51

17-gm pace

196

Best / worst

31.3 / 1.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
123.6WR46467219
212.9WR327429100
314.5WR258685000
420.1WR11104101110
531.3WR177163100
64.4WR704224000
79.8WR3112458000
86.5WR559335000
1023.5WR3136115100
119.0WR399540000
126.2WR468332000
138.2WR428442000
143.5WR719215000
1510.4WR387464000
165.0WR732140000
175.0WR655320000
181.8WR89318000