Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Emari Demercado

KC

RB58 · overall #183 · tier 9 · age 27

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Projected points

71

5.5/gm

Value over replacement

-17

repl 110

Range

36–106

sd 35

Week

4.4

vs DEN

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
24
Carries
72
Receptions
18
Rec yards
123
Rush yards
389
Rush TD
1.2
Rec TD
0.4
Total TD
1.6
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
5.0
Games of history
36
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.3
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.25
OL pass protection
+0.05
OL continuity
87%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.01
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
50
Effective contributors
2.66
Top player's share
49%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.56

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DEN,IND,MIA
Window matchup
+0.77
Opponents after
LV,LAC
After matchup
+0.12
Flip edge
+0.65
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.00

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

12

Points

51.8

Per game

4.32

17-gm pace

73

Best / worst

11.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.00000000
30.02001000
49.128022131
56.138100000
60.11101000
98.31479011-10
1011.9464043400
113.058032120
151.11103200
163.053001000
173.051103290
186.2229011280