Elic Ayomanor

Cut 92.1 -> 75.0 at Matt's call, from the audit's buried-in-pool gate: draftable at WR83 while listed FIFTH in his own receiver room, with no ADP at all. A RATE CLAIM -- fantasy_points only; his 14.6 games carry no designation and are not in dispute. THE RATE WAS NEVER THE AGGRESSIVE PART. 6.31/g sits BELOW his own 6.00 half-PPR/g. What is implausible is the SNAP SHARE: 0.806 at depth 5, third in a room whose top two sit at 0.82. Tennessee's receivers sum to 4.76 snap shares, second in the league against a median of 3.19 -- the model fielding nearly five receivers a snap. THE DECIDING EVIDENCE IS WITHIN-TEAM, so it cannot be a systematic offset against Sleeper: we run 0.90x Sleeper on Tate and 0.86x on Robinson, the two starters, and 1.97x on him. A model simply projecting higher than Sleeper would not do that to one man in a room. 75.0 lands him just under Chimere Dike, the depth-4 receiver directly ahead of him, which is the internally coherent ordering the gate was asking for. Implied snap share falls to about 0.66, between Dike's 0.593 and Osborn's 0.663. RECORDED AGAINST ITS OWN COUNTER-ARGUMENT: ECR has him WR84 against our WR83, so the expert consensus AGREED with the number being cut. Underdog WR109, consensus WR113 and Sleeper's 46.7 points are the sources that did not. If ECR proves right, the thing that was wrong is depth_order 5 rather than this projection -- re-read it that way rather than re-cutting. BASIS CORRECTED 3 SEP. The comparison above originally quoted `obs_ppr_pg`, which is FULL PPR, against a projection the board computes in HALF PPR. Every such figure in this file has been replaced with the player's own half-PPR rate, measured from nflverse weekly data over his whole career. Receptions are the whole difference, so the error scaled with target volume and was largest for receivers.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.