Efton Chism III

WR215 · overall #494 · tier – · age 24

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Projected points

1.7/gm

Value over replacement

-68

repl 119

Range

0–48

sd 28

Week

1.0

@ BUF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 9
Carries: 1
Receptions: 6
Rec yards: 94
Rush yards: 7
Rush TD: 0.0
Rec TD: 1.2
Total TD: 1.2
Games projected: 11.9
Observed pts/gm (history): 2.1
Games of history: 8
Age multiplier: 1.044
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 34.3
Projected plays / game: 60.1
Projected pass rate: 57%
OL run block: -0.38
OL pass protection: -0.39
OL continuity: 72%
2TE rate: 31%
3WR rate: 57%
1st-down pass rate: 43%
Run friendly: +0.11
Scheme creativity: -0.58
Play action / motion: 21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.15
Top player's share: 36%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy low
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup: +0.05
Opponents after: CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup: +0.06
Flip edge: -0.00
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 11
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.45

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

16.5

Per game

2.06

17-gm pace

Best / worst

12.0 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
6	0.0	WR100	0	0	0	0
7	0.0	WR103	0	0	0	0
9	0.0	WR98	0	0	0	0
10	0.0	WR94	0	0	0	0
11	0.0	WR107	0	0	0	0
13	0.0	WR109	0	0	0	0
17	12.0	WR28	2	2	40	1
18	4.5	WR62	1	1	35	0