Dont'e Thornton Jr.

WR75 · overall #178 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

3.6/gm

Value over replacement

-8

repl 119

Range

0–21

sd 14

Week

0.0

vs KC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 3.1
Carries / game: 0.1
Receptions / game: 1.7
Rec yards / game: 21
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.09
Total TD / game: 0.09
Games projected: 2.1
Observed pts/gm (history): 2.1
Games of history: 11
Age multiplier: 1.052
Usage carryover: 0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.6
Projected plays / game: 60.9
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -1.08
OL pass protection: -0.32
OL continuity: 50%
2TE rate: 42%
3WR rate: 58%
1st-down pass rate: 49%
Run friendly: +0.59
Scheme creativity: -0.05
Play action / motion: 22% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score: 98
Effective contributors: 4.24
Top player's share: 38%
New play-caller: yes
Variance multiplier: 2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: avoid
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: KC,NE,BUF
Window matchup: -0.36
Opponents after: LA,NYJ,SF
After matchup: +0.01
Flip edge: -0.38
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 13
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.07

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

18.5

Per game

1.68

17-gm pace

Best / worst

5.5 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	5.5	WR53	4	2	45
2	2.5	WR96	4	1	20
3	3.9	WR67	4	2	29
4	0.0	WR113	2	0	0
5	0.0	WR101	2	0	0
7	0.0	WR103	3	0	0
10	0.9	WR89	2	1	4
12	1.9	WR77	2	1	14
13	1.6	WR91	2	1	11
17	2.2	WR86	4	2	12
18	0.0	WR109	1	0	0