RB
Derrick Henry
BALRB15 · overall #23 · tier 4 · age 32
Projected points
198
13.0/gm
Value over replacement
94
repl 110
Range
142–253
sd 56
Week
13.6
@ IND
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 28
- Carries
- 220
- Receptions
- 22
- Rec yards
- 195
- Rush yards
- 1055
- Rush TD
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 0.5
- Total TD
- 10.4
- Games projected
- 15.2
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.3
- Games of history
- 67
- Age multiplier
- 0.838
- Usage carryover
- 0.90
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.9
- Projected plays / game
- 60.0
- Projected pass rate
- 53%
- OL run block
- +0.40
- OL pass protection
- -0.27
- OL continuity
- 58%
- 2TE rate
- 45%
- 3WR rate
- 34%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- +0.68
- Scheme creativity
- +0.62
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- new head coach, clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 55
- Effective contributors
- 1.57
- Top player's share
- 78%
- New play-caller
- yes
- Variance multiplier
- 1.64
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- IND,NO,DAL
- Window matchup
- +1.11
- Opponents after
- TEN,ATL,CLE
- After matchup
- +0.17
- Flip edge
- +0.94
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.28
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
264.5
Per game
15.56
17-gm pace
265
Best / worst
45.6 / 2.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28.2 | 18 | 169 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 5 | 9.3 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 13.0 | 24 | 122 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 8 | 19.1 | 21 | 71 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 12.1 | 19 | 119 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | 8.4 | 20 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 | 18.2 | 18 | 103 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 | 20.8 | 21 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| 13 | 16.4 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| 14 | 10.2 | 25 | 94 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 | 10.0 | 11 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 22.8 | 18 | 128 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 45.6 | 36 | 216 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 12.6 | 20 | 126 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |