Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

DeMario Douglas

NE

WR89 · overall #212 · tier 9 · age 25

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Projected points

92

6.2/gm

Value over replacement

-19

repl 119

Range

58–127

sd 34

Week

4.1

@ BUF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
69
Carries
5
Receptions
45
Rec yards
521
Rush yards
23
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
2.4
Total TD
2.4
Games projected
14.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.2
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.38
OL pass protection
-0.39
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.11
Scheme creativity
-0.58
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.05
Opponents after
CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
-0.00
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

95.8

Per game

5.99

17-gm pace

102

Best / worst

20.0 / 0.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
18.2WR4972-2114
21.8WR107118000
32.7WR92527000
53.7WR743217000
616.1WR164371100
74.7WR663317000
85.7WR591144023
920.0WR1064100100
105.4WR542234010
116.1WR54333601-5
126.1WR4911370114
136.3WR543333000
150.5WR103000015
161.6WR107216000
172.0WR972110000
184.9WR573229000