Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

De'Von Achane

MIA

RB5 · overall #11 · tier 2 · age 24

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Projected points

212

15.0/gm

Value over replacement

115

repl 110

Range

140–283

sd 71

Week

12.4

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
67
Carries
191
Receptions
54
Rec yards
394
Rush yards
880
Rush TD
6.2
Rec TD
2.5
Total TD
8.7
Games projected
14.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.2
Games of history
44
Age multiplier
1.022
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.25
OL pass protection
-0.63
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
87
Effective contributors
2.15
Top player's share
63%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.92

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LV,SF,KC
Window matchup
-1.01
Opponents after
MIN,CIN
After matchup
-0.65
Flip edge
-0.36
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.51

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

289.3

Per game

18.08

17-gm pace

307

Best / worst

37.5 / 11.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
115.0755043201
222.211300108921
312.61262097290
416.6209912120
513.61016076301
629.016128264220
711.31382053160
817.61867075241
913.614670106390
1037.522174266510
1119.021120055450
1319.42213411000
1417.0792111130
1515.71260066670
1616.5158113390
1712.71883033290