Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

De'Von Achane

MIA

RB5 · overall #11 · tier 2 · age 24

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Projected points

212

15.0/gm

Value over replacement

115

repl 110

Range

140–283

sd 71

Week

12.4

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
67
Carries
191
Receptions
54
Rec yards
394
Rush yards
880
Rush TD
6.2
Rec TD
2.5
Total TD
8.7
Games projected
14.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.2
Games of history
44
Age multiplier
1.022
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.25
OL pass protection
-0.63
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
87
Effective contributors
2.15
Top player's share
63%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.92

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LV,SF,KC
Window matchup
-1.01
Opponents after
MIN,CIN
After matchup
-0.65
Flip edge
-0.36
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.51

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

322.8

Per game

20.17

17-gm pace

343

Best / worst

40.5 / 12.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
116.5755043201
226.211300108921
316.11262097290
417.1209912120
516.61016076301
631.016128264220
712.81382053160
820.11867075241
916.614670106390
1040.522174266510
1121.521120055450
1319.42213411000
1417.5792111130
1518.71260066670
1618.0158113390
1714.21883033290