Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

De'Von Achane

MIA

RB5 · overall #11 · tier 2 · age 24

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Projected points

212

15.0/gm

Value over replacement

115

repl 110

Range

140–283

sd 71

Week

12.4

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.8
Carries / game
13.6
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
28
Rush yards / game
62
Rush TD / game
0.44
Rec TD / game
0.18
Total TD / game
0.62
Games projected
14.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.2
Games of history
44
Age multiplier
1.022
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.6
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.25
OL pass protection
-0.63
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
46%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
-0.07
Scheme creativity
+1.42
Play action / motion
26% / 73%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, clear lead
Ambiguity score
87
Effective contributors
2.15
Top player's share
63%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.92

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LV,SF,KC
Window matchup
-1.01
Opponents after
MIN,CIN
After matchup
-0.65
Flip edge
-0.36
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.51

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

322.8

Per game

20.17

17-gm pace

343

Best / worst

40.5 / 12.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
116.5755043201
226.211300108921
316.11262097290
417.1209912120
516.61016076301
631.016128264220
712.81382053160
820.11867075241
916.614670106390
1040.522174266510
1121.521120055450
1319.42213411000
1417.5792111130
1518.71260066670
1618.0158113390
1714.21883033290