QB
Davis Mills
HOUQB56 · overall #576 · tier – · age 27
Projected points
65
6.8/gm
Value over replacement
-85
repl 250
Range
32–98
sd 33
Week
1.9
vs DAL
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Pass attempts
- 164
- Pass yards
- 1077
- Pass TD
- 6.6
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yards
- 55
- Rush TD
- 0.5
- Games projected
- 9.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 8.9
- Games of history
- 30
- Age multiplier
- 1.025
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.19
- OL continuity
- 64%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.36
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- Window matchup
- +0.43
- Opponents after
- NYG,LAC
- After matchup
- -0.45
- Flip edge
- +0.88
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.79
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
6
Points
68.6
Per game
11.43
17-gm pace
194
Best / worst
27.7 / 1.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.2 | QB30 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | 6.2 | QB27 | 17 | 30 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 | 27.7 | QB1 | 27 | 45 | 292 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| 11 | 16.4 | QB9 | 26 | 41 | 274 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 | 14.5 | QB14 | 16 | 30 | 153 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | 2.6 | QB33 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 |