RB
David Montgomery
HOURB28 · overall #46 · tier 6 · age 29
Projected points
158
11.0/gm
Value over replacement
60
repl 110
Range
108–208
sd 50
Week
10.0
vs BUF
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 38
- Carries
- 177
- Receptions
- 31
- Rec yards
- 238
- Rush yards
- 709
- Rush TD
- 8.1
- Rec TD
- 0.3
- Total TD
- 8.3
- Games projected
- 14.3
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 11.9
- Games of history
- 61
- Age multiplier
- 0.895
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.9
- Projected plays / game
- 61.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -1.37
- OL pass protection
- -1.17
- OL continuity
- 70%
- 2TE rate
- 20%
- 3WR rate
- 76%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 46%
- Run friendly
- -0.37
- Scheme creativity
- -0.30
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 53%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 54
- Effective contributors
- 2.86
- Top player's share
- 49%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.63
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk4
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- BUF,CIN,IND
- Window matchup
- +0.55
- Opponents after
- DAL,TEN,JAX
- After matchup
- +0.04
- Flip edge
- +0.51
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 8
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.62
2025 game log
full season · Full PPR
Games
17
Points
166.9
Per game
9.82
17-gm pace
167
Best / worst
29.4 / 1.2
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.3 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 11 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | 29.4 | 12 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 18.2 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| 6 | 8.1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| 7 | 5.9 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 9 | 11.0 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 | 10.1 | 15 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 4.7 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 | 6.7 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.8 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| 14 | 14.3 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 | 9.2 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 1.4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.0 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 | 6.5 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |