Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Davante Adams

LA

WR21 · overall #62 · tier 6 · age 33

← back to rankings

Projected points

150

10.5/gm

Value over replacement

47

repl 115

Range

83–217

sd 67

Week

9.6

vs SF

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
102
Carries
0
Receptions
60
Rec yards
801
Rush yards
0
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
7.4
Total TD
7.4
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
16.9
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.750
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
62.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.83
OL pass protection
+0.80
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.62
Scheme creativity
+1.30
Play action / motion
32% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
61
Effective contributors
3.17
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.74

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
SF,NYG,DEN
Window matchup
+0.12
Opponents after
PHI,BUF,ARI
After matchup
+0.33
Flip edge
-0.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.19

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

14

Points

162.9

Per game

11.64

17-gm pace

198

Best / worst

21.5 / 2.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
15.18451000
216.6136106100
311.68356100
411.66456100
58.811588000
63.99439000
721.58535300
918.07560200
1013.78677100
116.1811100
1218.28562200
1317.85458200
142.96429000
157.19471000