Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

D'Andre Swift

CHI

RB21 · overall #33 · tier 5 · age 27

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Projected points

176

12.1/gm

Value over replacement

76

repl 110

Range

142–211

sd 35

Week

11.4

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
50
Carries
184
Receptions
38
Rec yards
303
Rush yards
854
Rush TD
5.9
Rec TD
0.8
Total TD
6.7
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.7
Games of history
63
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
34
Effective contributors
2.04
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.08
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.72
Flip edge
-0.80
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.46

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

211.6

Per game

13.22

17-gm pace

225

Best / worst

24.5 / 1.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
18.01753053120
212.4126313360
39.31333043450
414.01438164220
624.514108032671
720.319124111140
814.11145122260
1012.31380085180
119.0219001000
121.4815011140
1320.318125121130
149.71363043190
1522.11898211-20
168.01358022120
1720.9954232250
185.3104002180