RB
D'Andre Swift
CHIRB15 · overall #26 · tier 4 · age 27
Projected points
183
12.5/gm
Value over replacement
77
repl 116
Range
148–218
sd 35
Week
15.9
vs NYJ
The take
written by hand
12.7 carries and 3.4 targets a game. Fine rather than exciting, and the age curve at 0.93 is doing some of the work here.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.3
- Carries / game
- 13.4
- Receptions / game
- 2.5
- Rec yards / game
- 20
- Rush yards / game
- 62
- Rush TD / game
- 0.40
- Rec TD / game
- 0.06
- Total TD / game
- 0.46
- Games projected
- 14.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 13.7
- Games of history
- 63
- Age multiplier
- 0.934
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.8
- Projected plays / game
- 62.5
- Projected pass rate
- 56%
- OL run block
- +1.36
- OL pass protection
- +1.05
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 36%
- 3WR rate
- 64%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 45%
- Run friendly
- +0.61
- Scheme creativity
- +0.58
- Play action / motion
- 26% / 54%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 34
- Effective contributors
- 2.04
- Top player's share
- 56%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.35
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- NYJ,GB,ATL
- Window matchup
- +0.57
- Opponents after
- NE,SEA,TB
- After matchup
- -0.09
- Flip edge
- +0.66
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.57
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
16
Points
194.6
Per game
12.16
17-gm pace
207
Best / worst
23.5 / 0.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.5 | RB30 | 17 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | RB24 | 12 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | RB27 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| 4 | 12.0 | RB19 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| 6 | 23.5 | RB6 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 67 | 1 |
| 7 | 19.8 | RB5 | 19 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 8 | 13.1 | RB14 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| 10 | 9.8 | RB20 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| 11 | 9.0 | RB26 | 21 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 0.9 | RB54 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 | 19.8 | RB2 | 18 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 | 8.2 | RB28 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 | 21.6 | RB5 | 18 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | 7.0 | RB36 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 | 19.9 | RB8 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| 18 | 4.8 | RB35 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |