Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

D'Andre Swift

CHI

RB21 · overall #33 · tier 5 · age 27

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Projected points

176

12.1/gm

Value over replacement

76

repl 110

Range

142–211

sd 35

Week

11.4

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.4
Carries / game
12.6
Receptions / game
2.6
Rec yards / game
21
Rush yards / game
59
Rush TD / game
0.40
Rec TD / game
0.06
Total TD / game
0.46
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.7
Games of history
63
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
34
Effective contributors
2.04
Top player's share
56%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.35

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.08
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.72
Flip edge
-0.80
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.46

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

211.6

Per game

13.22

17-gm pace

225

Best / worst

24.5 / 1.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
18.01753053120
212.4126313360
39.31333043450
414.01438164220
624.514108032671
720.319124111140
814.11145122260
1012.31380085180
119.0219001000
121.4815011140
1320.318125121130
149.71363043190
1522.11898211-20
168.01358022120
1720.9954232250
185.3104002180