WR
Courtland Sutton
DENWR33 · overall #86 · tier 7 · age 30
Projected points
138
9.1/gm
Value over replacement
30
repl 115
Range
91–185
sd 47
Week
7.4
@ KC
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 95
- Carries
- 0
- Receptions
- 57
- Rec yards
- 789
- Rush yards
- 0
- Rush TD
- 0.0
- Rec TD
- 5.7
- Total TD
- 5.7
- Games projected
- 15.1
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 13.2
- Games of history
- 64
- Age multiplier
- 0.845
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 33.2
- Projected plays / game
- 62.2
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +1.24
- OL pass protection
- +1.55
- OL continuity
- 98%
- 2TE rate
- 23%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 49%
- Run friendly
- -0.38
- Scheme creativity
- +0.14
- Play action / motion
- 25% / 43%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 3.92
- Top player's share
- 35%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- avoid
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- KC,JAX,LA
- Window matchup
- -0.50
- Opponents after
- SF,LAC,SEA
- After matchup
- -0.43
- Flip edge
- -0.07
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.50
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
17
Points
145.7
Per game
8.57
17-gm pace
146
Best / worst
17.8 / 0.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.1 | 9 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 17.8 | 8 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 14.1 | 6 | 5 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 9.9 | 10 | 8 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.7 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 10.7 | 10 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 6.7 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.4 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 5.9 | 8 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 12.2 | 6 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 6.2 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 17.3 | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 14.6 | 12 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 4.0 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |