Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Bryce Young

CAR

QB22 · overall #217 · tier 6 · age 25

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Projected points

209

14.4/gm

Value over replacement

-28

repl 261

Range

169–248

sd 40

Week

12.8

vs CHI

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
453
Pass yards
2982
Pass TD
18.5
Carries
46
Rush yards
215
Rush TD
2.4
Games projected
14.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.8
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
59.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.31
OL pass protection
+0.20
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.67
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CHI,ATL,CLE
Window matchup
-0.37
Opponents after
DET,PHI
After matchup
-0.20
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.11

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

16

Points

218.0

Per game

13.63

17-gm pace

232

Best / worst

31.8 / 1.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
18.21835154125400
221.3355532831220
311.6162412100281
410.3183015010130
512.0193019821310
618.5172519931350
710.51525138102100
93.0112010201290
101.6172512401260
1131.83145448301-10
128.31829169124150
1322.51520206305230
1515.41524163107490
1617.62132191204200
178.9142454019271
1816.52435266212-10