Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Brashard Smith

KC

RB129 · overall #436 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

47

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-60

repl 116

Range

22–73

sd 26

Week

2.1

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
24
Carries
50
Receptions
18
Rec yards
126
Rush yards
196
Rush TD
0.4
Rec TD
0.4
Total TD
0.9
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
3.7
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.045
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.2
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.13
OL pass protection
-0.04
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.04
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
50
Effective contributors
2.66
Top player's share
49%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.56

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
LV,LAC
Window matchup
+0.58
Opponents after
SEA,DEN,NYJ
After matchup
-0.29
Flip edge
+0.87
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.23

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

17

Points

38.3

Per game

2.25

17-gm pace

38

Best / worst

8.1 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.0RB810000000
20.2RB711201000
31.3RB6521301000
43.6RB4849043270
53.6RB3814033320
62.1RB5200043210
78.1RB211439055420
80.8RB583800000
90.7RB573701000
110.8RB630003280
123.6RB4215043310
130.0RB740000000
140.7RB621700000
150.1RB772100000
160.4RB720001140
176.5RB280004351
185.8RB28125604220