Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

RB

Brashard Smith

KC

RB129 · overall #436 · tier – · age 23

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Projected points

47

3.2/gm

Value over replacement

-60

repl 116

Range

22–73

sd 26

Week

2.1

@ LV

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
24
Carries
50
Receptions
18
Rec yards
126
Rush yards
196
Rush TD
0.4
Rec TD
0.4
Total TD
0.9
Games projected
14.8
Observed pts/gm (history)
3.7
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.045
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
63.2
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
+0.13
OL pass protection
-0.04
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
41%
3WR rate
56%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.61
Scheme creativity
+0.04
Play action / motion
17% / 55%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
50
Effective contributors
2.66
Top player's share
49%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.56

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
LV,LAC
Window matchup
+0.58
Opponents after
SEA,DEN,NYJ
After matchup
-0.29
Flip edge
+0.87
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.23

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

50.8

Per game

2.99

17-gm pace

51

Best / worst

10.6 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
10.0RB810000000
20.2RB731201000
31.3RB6721301000
45.1RB4749043270
55.1RB3614033320
63.6RB4900043210
710.6RB191439055420
80.8RB603800000
90.7RB593701000
111.8RB590003280
125.1RB3715043310
130.0RB740000000
140.7RB641700000
150.1RB792100000
160.9RB720001140
178.0RB250004351
186.8RB27125604220