Braelon Allen
NYJRB68 · overall #222 · tier – · age 22
Projected points
62
5.4/gm
Value over replacement
-22
repl 116
Range
40–84
sd 22
Week
4.2
@ CHI
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
Cut 22 Aug at Matt's read. 6.26/g against a decay-weighted 4.33, +1.93 -- the model projects him 43% above anything he has produced. His two seasons are 4.45/g on 5.41 carries across a full 17 games, then 4.08 on 4. He is 22 and behind Breece Hall, which is why the model likes him, but 8.08 carries a game is a role he has never held. ADP RB60, ECR RB57.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 18
- Carries
- 80
- Receptions
- 13
- Rec yards
- 96
- Rush yards
- 317
- Rush TD
- 1.4
- Rec TD
- 0.2
- Total TD
- 1.6
- Games projected
- 11.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 4.7
- Games of history
- 21
- Age multiplier
- 1.067
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.2
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- -0.17
- OL pass protection
- -0.10
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 22%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- -0.43
- Scheme creativity
- -0.07
- Play action / motion
- 19% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- clear lead
- Ambiguity score
- 9
- Effective contributors
- 1.80
- Top player's share
- 73%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.27
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- CHI,CLE,NE
- Window matchup
- -0.25
- Opponents after
- MIA,LV,KC
- After matchup
- +0.10
- Flip edge
- -0.35
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.06
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
4
Points
13.3
Per game
3.32
17-gm pace
57
Best / worst
6.9 / 0.6
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.9 | RB27 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.1 | RB65 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | RB40 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | RB65 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |