Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Anthony Richardson

IND

QB37 · overall #376 · tier 9 · age 24

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Projected points

94

10.4/gm

Value over replacement

-54

repl 261

Range

54–134

sd 40

Week

5.8

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Pass attempts
202
Pass yards
1482
Pass TD
8.5
Carries
21
Rush yards
105
Rush TD
1.1
Games projected
9.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.3
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.69
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.84
Flip edge
-1.53
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.32

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

2

Points

1.2

Per game

0.58

17-gm pace

10

Best / worst

1.3 / -0.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
3-0.1000004-10
51.312900000