Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Alvin Kamara

NO

RB46 · overall #145 · tier 8 · age 31

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Projected points

87

6.8/gm

Value over replacement

-1

repl 110

Range

25–150

sd 62

Week

5.2

@ DET

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
42
Carries
86
Receptions
34
Rec yards
235
Rush yards
343
Rush TD
2.3
Rec TD
0.6
Total TD
2.9
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.2
Games of history
53
Age multiplier
0.857
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.09
OL pass protection
+0.23
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.31
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.59
Top player's share
44%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DET,BAL,LV
Window matchup
-0.30
Opponents after
ATL,MIN,NYG
After matchup
+0.35
Flip edge
-0.65
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.75

2025 game log

full season · Full PPR

Games

11

Points

100.7

Per game

9.15

17-gm pace

156

Best / worst

16.0 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
113.71145122120
216.02199066210
36.61842021140
411.2157005420
59.5827064280
612.61031055450
75.9112803310
86.5621022240
90.761403130
1014.52283033320
123.531102240