Adam Thielen

MIN

WR106 · overall #246 · tier – · age 35

← back to rankings

Projected points

5.0/gm

Value over replacement

-30

repl 119

Range

0–126

sd 66

Week

1.7

vs MIA

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Per game Season total

Targets: 43
Carries: 0
Receptions: 29
Rec yards: 326
Rush yards: 0
Rush TD: 0.0
Rec TD: 1.8
Total TD: 1.8
Games projected: 12.0
Observed pts/gm (history): 6.9
Games of history: 58
Age multiplier: 0.700
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 33.1
Projected plays / game: 61.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: -0.05
OL pass protection: +0.10
OL continuity: 76%
2TE rate: 27%
3WR rate: 63%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.76
Scheme creativity: +0.22
Play action / motion: 26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 56
Effective contributors: 2.95
Top player's share: 48%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.66

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy now, flip wk7
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: MIA,NO
Window matchup: +0.75
Opponents after: IND,DET,BUF
After matchup: +0.39
Flip edge: +0.36
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 6
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.78

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

20.6

Per game

1.47

17-gm pace

Best / worst

4.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds
1	2.0	WR80	1	0	0
2	2.6	WR83	3	2	26
3	0.0	WR120	2	0	0
4	1.1	WR95	2	2	11
7	1.0	WR89	2	1	10
8	0.0	WR93	2	0	0
10	1.6	WR73	3	2	16
11	0.6	WR97	2	1	6
12	0.0	WR97	1	0	0
14	0.4	WR94	1	1	4
15	0.7	WR96	1	1	7
16	4.9	WR45	4	4	49
17	1.4	WR87	5	2	14
18	4.3	WR39	6	3	43