RB
AJ Dillon
CARRB60 · overall #206 · tier 9 · age 28
Projected points
74
6.0/gm
Value over replacement
-16
repl 116
Range
38–110
sd 36
Week
3.1
vs DET
Projected usage
opportunity over the projected season
- Targets
- 18
- Carries
- 103
- Receptions
- 14
- Rec yards
- 103
- Rush yards
- 413
- Rush TD
- 2.0
- Rec TD
- 0.1
- Total TD
- 2.2
- Games projected
- 12.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 4.8
- Games of history
- 38
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.0
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.33
- OL pass protection
- +0.21
- OL continuity
- 71%
- 2TE rate
- 25%
- 3WR rate
- 73%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.68
- Scheme creativity
- -0.67
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 40%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 34
- Effective contributors
- 2.06
- Top player's share
- 60%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.36
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- DET,PHI
- Window matchup
- -0.21
- Opponents after
- TB,GB,DEN
- After matchup
- -0.26
- Flip edge
- +0.05
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.77
2025 game log
full season · Standard
Games
6
Points
6.1
Per game
1.02
17-gm pace
17
Best / worst
1.9 / 0.0
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0 | RB61 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | RB57 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | RB58 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | RB58 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.0 | RB68 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.3 | RB77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |