Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

A.J. Brown

NE

WR22 · overall #56 · tier 5 · age 29

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Projected points

125

12.5/gm

Value over replacement

51

repl 119

Range

73–177

sd 52

Week

0.0

@ BUF

The take

written by hand

New team at 29 with the age curve down at 0.88, and I still raised him to WR11. 8.3 targets across 15.5 games is the most dependable volume in this range.

Why this ranking

hand-set 2026-09-16

GAMES CLAIM, 16 Sep: he is on IR. The row above was a market-matching call from 6 Aug (raised WR17 -> WR9, level with ADP 9 and Sleeper 7), re-priced 3 Sep, and its own text said 'unchanged in substance since it was written' -- which by 16 Sep was false. It stated a season total with NO games value, so split_override gave games first claim and restored them from the 0.15 injury multiplier's ~2.4 all the way to 12.6, then put the remainder into the rate. That produced WR5 at 15.68/g and the 5th-highest VOR of any receiver in the league FOR A PLAYER ON INJURED RESERVE. Now written as both factors: 10.0 games (missing about six, Matt's read) at 12.50/g, which is the rate the previous version argued for (12.28) and below his own 13.47 career half-PPR rate. Writing the games directly also clears injury_games_mult, so the total can no longer be spent on undoing his injury. The WEEKLY board was always right about him -- play_prob 0.00, WR239 -- this only ever affected the season, dynasty and ROS views.

This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.

Projected usage

opportunity over the projected season

Targets
84
Carries
1
Receptions
53
Rec yards
715
Rush yards
6
Rush TD
0.0
Rec TD
5.0
Total TD
5.0
Games projected
10.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
15.7
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
60.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.38
OL pass protection
-0.39
OL continuity
72%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.11
Scheme creativity
-0.58
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
BUF,LV,NYJ
Window matchup
+0.05
Opponents after
CHI,MIA,GB
After matchup
+0.06
Flip edge
-0.00
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Standard

Games

15

Points

142.3

Per game

9.49

17-gm pace

161

Best / worst

25.2 / 0.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
10.8WR101118000
22.7WR818527000
316.9WR3106109100
40.7WR105927000
54.3WR558543000
68.0WR269680000
724.1WR264121200
101.3WR783213000
114.9WR4111749000
1217.0WR7108110100
1325.2WR11210132200
1410.0WR18136100000
1510.1WR232241100
169.5WR2412995000
176.8WR317568000